“Falling Enrollment” Original painting and banner art by Madison Plazio, McKean High School

For the first time in a decade, Delaware public school enrollment has dropped. This trend spans the country—just one of the many shakeups caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In Delaware, enrollment triggers a handful of important policy and budgetary questions. A drop in public school enrollment brings many concerns with it, such as: a potential decrease in school funding, early learners starting behind when it matters most, and missing students who haven’t received a formal education since schools shutdown in March 2020.

Delaware’s Numbers

According to data released from the Delaware Department of Education (DDOE), enrollment dipped by more than 2,400 students, a 1.7-percent decrease from last year. All but four districts saw a decrease in total enrollment for this school year. Public charter schools, however, saw an increase in student enrollment with an additional 544 students, or a 3.3-percent increase from the previous school year.

Meanwhile, enrollment in non-public schools showed staggering increases, according to DDOE. COVID-19 inspired the emergence of learning “pods,” or multi-family homeschool set-ups, as well as other homeschool options. This increase in enrollment comes after nearly a decade of decreasing non-public school enrollment. An additional 2,439 Delaware students attended non-public schools this year compared to last year (a 16-percent increase).

• 4,512 Delaware students are now enrolled in single-family homeschools, an increase of 1,742 students (a shocking 63-percent increase) from 2019.
• 402 Delaware students enrolled in multi-family homeschools, which represents a whopping 49-percent increase as enrollment grew from 269 students since last school year.
• Private schools also saw an increase in enrollment with an additional 564 Delaware students, or a 4.4-percent increase, bringing total private school enrollment to 13,256.

The drop in public-school enrollment seems to be most drastic in the early years, specifically kindergarten and pre-K. Enrollment of three- and four-year-olds in district-based preschool programs dropped by over 200 students, or 10 percent compared to last year. It’s the first decrease in the past five years, bringing the state’s total enrollment almost back to where it was in 2019.

Non-public schools have seen the reverse effect. When compared to all other grades, kindergarten has the largest number of Delaware students attending non-public school this year, with a total of 1,712 students. Out of all grades, kindergarteners also made up the largest group of Delaware students who attend single-family homeschools and private schools this school year.

The public system also lost a notable number of high school seniors. During the December State Board of Education meeting, Secretary Bunting noted a drop in public school enrollment of the class of 2021 citing potential reasons such as students assuming jobs to help meet the economic challenges of their families brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

National Context

So far, there has been no national data released on the overall impact COVID-19 wrought on public school enrollment. Chalkbeat released information from a survey of 33 states’ preliminary enrollment numbers and the results are grim. Across the states surveyed, public school enrollment has dropped by 500,000 students, a two-percent decrease nationwide.

Like Delaware, many states across the country have and continue to report on the widespread decrease in public school enrollment for the current school year. Some examples of this are Massachusetts where public school enrollment dropped by nearly four-percent (37,000 students) and Arizona where enrollment is an estimated 50,000 students less since last year, a five-percent drop. Also similar to Delaware, states across the country have experienced the sharpest drop in early years. States like Washington experienced steep decreases in kindergarten enrollment with a 14-percent drop from the previous school year.

Implications and Considerations

1. Reasons to explain the drop vary. Some states, like Delaware, have reported an increase in private and parochial school enrollment, suggesting that many families have turned to non-public schools to educate their children this year. A report from Bellwether Education suggests potential reasons for a decrease in public school enrollment could be: non-mandatory kindergarten in some states (not the case in Delaware), parent perception of remote learning, families having alternatives available for childcare, or families feel they can meet their child(ren)’s needs on their own.

Many families and students have struggled to enroll, engage, or connect with any formal education this year due to the barriers and crises the pandemic has created and amplified for students, such as: housing insecurity, mental health crises, internet access, technology access, and economic hardship. Anecdotally, teachers say decreased enrollment of some teenage students has been driven by economic, childcare, or other demands of the students in their household caused by the pandemic.

2. A worrying drop in kindergarten could mean students start further behind since research shows early learning is critical to a child’s foundational skills and educational success. The most concerning is kindergarten children who are not enrolled in public school or any other educational setting this year (private, home school, etc.). Not attending some form of school this year could lead to unmet academic and social-emotional learning needs. It could also prevent or delay the delivery of early intervention services to children and limit access to health and nutrition services typically provided at school.

3. These numbers reflect students enrolled in public school—but what about students who aren’t? Many families turned to non-public options like private and home schools this year to educate their children, but what about students who are not enrolled at all? The term “missing students” has been used across the nation to refer to students who are completely unaccounted for. A Bellwether Education report suggests that there could be up to three million marginalized students nationwide who are not enrolled anywhere—in public or non-public school. Schools and districts across Delaware and the U.S. have worked to reach students and ensure they are connected and engaged. Despite efforts—students are still missing, and it’s unclear where the students who are completely unaccounted for actually are. It’s also unclear if these students, and students who transferred to a non-public school this year, will return to public schools next school year.

4. A drop in enrollment could impact public school funding for future years. This dip in enrollment may also mean a dip in funding. In Delaware, state funding for schools is driven by a count of student attendance in the fall, typically around September 30 each year. The state then uses this count to fund schools for the following school year. Therefore, this year’s decrease in numbers could mean less money for districts to work with for all students. For example, if students who left public schools this year, or families who deferred public kindergarten for a year return next year, schools might have less funding than they should for the number of students enrolled. Should this happen, schools could encounter capacity issues, staffing concerns, and face overcrowding in many of their classrooms, especially kindergarten classrooms.

As the News Journal reports, the typical safety net for Delaware districts is the estimated count of student enrollment that districts take each spring. This is an estimate of student enrollment for the next school year, and the state is required, by Delaware code, to fund 98 percent of the students counted. During a Joint Finance Committee meeting in February, Secretary Bunting mentioned a potential proposal of a modified estimated unit count for this spring to address some of the funding concerns mentioned above.

Public school finance spins a complex and intricate web of policy decisions. When we’ve written about Delaware school funding and funding equity in the past, we’ve focused on resource allocation, how we count students, and property reassessment. Yet another important piece of the puzzle is the local tax rate and school referendums.

School districts and charter schools get their funding from a mix of state, local, and federal money. When we say “resource allocation,” we generally refer to the state portion, which in Delaware makes up the largest share of school funding (about 63 percent). The state portion pays for teacher and school personnel salaries, energy costs, among other costs. Local taxes make up the local source of school funding and typically fund capital projects, general operations, charter payments, and more.

For Context

There are four components of the local tax rate for traditional district schools. Two are set by elected school board action and two are set by referendum of voters. Local school board members claim authority over half of the components (match tax and tuition). In vo-tech districts, school boards can increase current expenses to a limit, without a referendum.

A referendum presents a rare opportunity for Delaware homeowners to decide whether or not to increase their tax rates. Not surprisingly, it can be a tough sell.

Recently, referenda efforts have been difficult to pass, especially on the first attempt. Districts can go back to their voting base a second time, but often do so with reduced requests. From 2010-2017, 14 referenda have been approved, 10 failed—a passing rate just over 50 percent.

Calls for Change

Legislation to address referendum reform came and went during the 150^th General Assembly. The unsuccessful proposal (HB129, w/HA2) would have allowed school boards to increase current expense component of the local tax rate without a referendum (with some limits):

• First, the local school board could only set the rate for current expenses, which include operational costs such as the local share of teacher and staff salaries and benefits, instructional supplies, and more.
• Second, the suggested increase in tax proposed by the local school board would be capped at whichever of the following is lower: a rate equal to the percent change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI-W), or a rate of two percent annually.

Legislators are expected to revisit this proposal next session, with a recent revival in referendum reform led by the Redding Consortium, whose members voted the issue as one of their top priorities this year. The Funding and Governance Work Group, chaired by Rep. Nnamdi Chukwuocha and Eugene Young, presented potential referendum reform legislation, similar to HB129 (GA 150), to the full consortium during their December meeting.

National Models

While most states do require voter approval for some types of school tax increases, very few states require referendums for operating expenses, according to school finance expert Mike Griffith. That makes Delaware an outlier in how it funds education locally. Consider: Delaware districts have to ask voters to pay for rising costs they can’t really control, basic operating expenses like salaries, supplies, and utilities.

Which is why losing a referendum in Delaware can be a devastating blow for a district, financially.

But other states have figured out ways around this. According to a review of all state codes, most states put one or more measures in place to limit disparities in district property tax rates. Delaware is one of 11 states with no such bounds on property tax rates. In 26 states, the state sets a level above which school districts may not raise property taxes without voter approval.

Neighboring states are also in this group of 11 states with no bounds, but employ something like the proposed House Bill 129. In New Jersey, no floor or ceiling for local property tax rates exist, however, school districts cannot increase property taxes by more than two percent a year unless approved by voters or in exceptional cases. In Pennsylvania, there is also no floor or ceiling for local property tax rates. Property tax increases are subject to a limit and are based on an inflation index calculated by the state each year. In order to increase above the limit, school districts need voter approval via referendum or turn to the state’s Department of Education and apply for an exception.

 Reasons to Reform Referendum in Delaware

1. Expenses go up each year—without action from a district, rising costs and inflation causes expenses to go up from year to year. Districts should be allowed to raise local revenue to keep up with operating costs.
2. If school boards collect and increase taxes on a more regular basis, rather than having to go to referendum each time they seek an increase, it would mean a steadier, more predictable flow of funds for school districts that match the rate of inflation and other rising costs.
3. Each referendum means a district has to spend money on a new marketing campaign to win voters—not typically a good use of district leaders’ time and funding, and overall costly and distracting from the business of education.

More Responsible Local Financial Planning

In addition to referendum reform and as part of an effort to update the local tax code, other states have proposed further democratic measures and protections for taxpayers to ensure responsible local financial planning.

• Improved transparency and public use of online per-pupil expenditure reporting such as:
  1. report spending detail at the school site and central office, which is key information for understanding funding differences across districts, schools, and charters;
  2. report contextual information such as student demographics, and school-level student outcomes data with school-level per-pupil expenditures;
  3. add statewide comparisons on funding across schools;
  4. provide regular training for school boards and other stakeholders on interpreting and using the data to guide decision-making.
• Add improved required financial training for school board members. Training could be improved by creating a penalty or recourse if new school board members do not complete training and requiring training upon re-election, not just initial election.
• Consider an overall ceiling, instead of an annual percentage similar to vo-tech districts and other states. For example, Colorado and Michigan impose ceilings for every $1,000 of local property wealth.
• Reduce school board member terms to four years, which was proposed in 2018 through House Bill 278. Terms in most other states are three to four years (e.g. NJ: three years, PA: four years).
• Align school board elections with November general election, an idea proposed in a 2012 house bill. Potential benefits could increase voter turnout for school board elections, which has averaged a paltry eight percent over the last 50 elections as of 2017, and save the state money via consolidation.

Some Delaware parents looking to register their kids in public school run into some confusing roadblocks.

Currently, Delaware has no uniform, online registration system for families with children entering pre-K, kindergarten or any grade through grade 12, causing families to navigate multiple (largely paper) forms.

This should not be as difficult as Delaware makes it.

The COVID-19 pandemic has made the need for an online common process more apparent as much of life has become virtual. The state also already operates an online common data system and school choice portal. Last session, a bill was introduced to create a common, online process for kindergarten registration, but ultimately, the proposal did not pass. Legislators have the opportunity to build upon and approve a uniform registration process in January.

Why do we need a uniform registration system?

With 2021 technology, there’s no reason Delaware can’t adopt a modern, one-stop digital shop that allows families to choose the option more convenient for them—paper or online, and in multiple languages. Ultimately, a common, uniform system would simplify the process for families and districts, enable schools to engage with families and plan in advance of the school year, and integrate data systems.

There are currently 29 school districts and charter schools in Delaware that provide kindergarten and 41  that accept students in other grades; each with its own registration and enrollment process. Parents are often asked to fill out paper forms in-person at schools during the workday. In kindergarten alone, there are 29 different registration systems.

A 2018 Delaware Readiness Teams survey asked families about their experiences with the current registration system While the survey only looked at kindergarten registration, the message is clear: an uncoordinated, paper registration system is confusing and burdensome for families. Takeaways from the survey include:

• On average, seven (often repetitive) forms are required for kindergarten registration.
• Three out of four caregivers call the registration process hard or extremely hard.
• If families utilize school choice, they must fill out two more sets of forms.
• Almost 100 percent of Spanish-speaking families who took the survey believe the process is hard or extremely hard.

A uniform registration system would simplify the process not just for families, but for schools too. Currently, district and charter staff have to coordinate paperwork and manually enter data from paper forms. A common, online system would be much more efficient. As reported by Tech Impact, an online common enrollment system would also help schools modernize and meet the needs of families. A uniform system further helps schools by giving them accurate student counts, which drive teacher hiring, supplies, classroom set up, scheduling, accurate and efficient bus routes and transportation scheduling. A common, online system also helps align data across schools, districts, health systems, and departments—making it easier for these entities to holistically support children every step of their development.

Some districts have begun to develop common forms and processes for kindergarten registration. The state also already requires districts and charters to collect some common information and has privacy protections in place to protect it. Since some of this work is already in progress or done, this year presents a great opportunity to scale and expand these efforts.

What’s been proposed?

The state Department of Education has committed to implementing a common registration system in two phases. Phase I would include moving pre-K, kindergarten, and new student registration online and into the pre-K to 12 attendance system. Future phases would include the integration and alignment of data across grade bands, health systems, and departments. While this is movement in the right direction, there are still many unknowns, such as: when the online registration system would be available for families, whether the system is comprehensive, and if participation would be required.

Looking ahead to the upcoming legislative session, we look forward to working with policymakers to build on Senate Bill 150  (2019) and require an online, uniform registration system for all grades from pre-K to 12 for  the 2023-24 school year that would:

• Create an online and paper common registration process and require the forms be provided in English and Spanish.
• Require a uniform process to be used by all LEAs that would include all necessary documents required for registration to be completed.
• Establish a process for supporting a parent to register a child for pre-kindergarten or kindergarten well in advance of the school choice period from November to January.

Affordable child care is an evergreen issue that predates COVID-19. But as we wrote in September, the pandemic forced many child care centers to severely limit their enrollment or close their doors entirely. Delaware’s child care centers have relied on federal CARES funding to support centers and families through “enhanced” reimbursements, but that money has been extended only through January for now. Without a greater financial investment and continued reimbursements, Delaware could permanently lose 1/3 of its early learning providers.

To help avert a potential crisis and preserve the child care industry, you can take action with the Fund Our Future campaign, which includes 20 partners: child care providers, unions, and community and advocacy groups.

Heading into the 151^st General Assembly, Purchase of Care (or POC)—a state subsidy that helps centers cover tuition for low-income families—will remain a priority. Child care for one child costs approximately 20 percent of the median family income, or around $13,000 per year per child. The problem is: POC doesn’t come close to covering the true cost of care in Delaware and only serves 23 percent of eligible children.

Today, POC only pays at the 75th percentile of the true “market rate,” the figure that providers charge families for care. In order for Delaware to fully invest in our youngest learners, it must increase investments in POC to cover the cost of care rather than just a percentage of the market rate. We anticipate a revised market rate study by February 1 and a cost of quality care study by June 2021. The hope is that we can identify how much funding we need and enable the state to set state rates for child care that provide adequate funding to support child development and a living wage to the early learning workforce.

Learn more about Purchase of Care here.